18 days and counting...

It seems like game-by-game predictions are the thing to do these days. Tony did it by picking actual scores, but I'm not that ambitious.

I'm going to go through Ohio State's schedule and give my guess on the chance OSU has to win.

Let's be honest: OSU is not going to be a big underdog in any game, so these will end up getting filed into three categories: Almost a sure win (90% or better), probable win (60-89%), toss-up (59% or less).

September 3 vs. Miami (Ohio): Almost a sure win (90%). Miami is a pretty good team, although they probably won't live up to the level they've reached in recent years. There's always some danger because in-state teams always take the Buckeyes much more seriously than OSU takes them, and there's a definite "look-ahead" possibility here. However, I think the gap in talent is still substantial enough to overcome all but the most serious mental lapses. And if you can't get "up" for your season opener, you've got some issues.

September 10 vs. Texas: Probable win (70%). Texas is big, Texas is good. Unfortunately for Texas, they are breaking in a new running back, and OSU has the defense to contain Vince Young's running and make him beat them through the air. Also, Mack Brown hasn't exactly shown himself to be a spectacular big game coach. Plus, this one is in Columbus and it's at night. We all know the Horseshoe is not the most spectacular atmosphere for crappy opponents (Indiana, San Diego State, etc.). But when it's on... it's on. Big games (Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, etc) get downright nasty. And this one I defy anyone to find a louder, more hostile place for visiting teams to play than Ohio Stadium at night. I don't see this as a blowout, but I think OSU can find a way to put up 20-28 points and hold Texas to something in the teens. I just don't see the Bucks losing this one.

September 17 vs. San Diego State: Almost a sure win (95%). The talent differential is just so great that I don't think the Aztecs can pull off a win. That being said, this is one of the greatest betting opportunities of the season. Assuming OSU comes in off a win over the Horns, they're going to be a huge favorite (20-30 points). This is the classic sandwich game; a letdown from the Texas game, plus a look-ahead to Iowa. This has ugly, sloppy, uninspired crapfest written all over it. I see something along the lines of 23-16.

September 24 vs. Iowa: Probable win (85%). Quick story: a friend of mine spoke with a number of OSU players a week or so ago. He asked which games they were looking forward to most this year, fully expecting them to say Texas (which is getting hyped like no other game in Columbus history). To a man they all named two teams: Iowa and Northwestern. This team got its ass kicked in Iowa City last year, and it is not happy about it. Add in the fact that Iowa has some question marks on the defensive line, and the Hawks haven't won in Columbus since... a long time ago. (I think it's 1991, but I have to dig out my media guide to be sure.)

October 1 Off Week

October 8 at Penn State: Tossup (55%). This game absolutely scares the hell out of me.
1) PSU will be a better team this year than they've been in the recent past.
2) They're pretty damn tough at home. OSU has two wins there since they joined the league (1995, 2003) and four losses (1994, 1997, 1999, 2001). The wins came by a total of four points.
3) OSU has been terrible after "idle" weeks under Tressel. They lost to Northwestern last year and lost to Wisconsin in 2003. They lost to UCLA following their only off week (the weekend after 9/11). The only win came in 2002, and that was against Kent State, with the off week coming between the first and second games.
4) There's an old axiom that you can only get a team really "up" for three games a year. This will not be one of OSU's three games (probably Texas, Iowa, Michigan). This will almost certainly be one of PSU's.
Will the talent advantage be enough for OSU to overcome the crowd, the history, and the Lions' fire? I say probably. Maybe. Sort of. [crosses fingers]

October 15 vs. Michigan State: Probable win (80%). We all know how MSU's season is going to go. They'll finish within a game of 6-5, beat one team they probably shouldn't (Michigan, I'm looking in your direction) and lose to a couple god awful teams. Drew Stanton will look like a Heisman contender, then get hurt twice. If Stanton is hurt in this one, it's 95% certain that OSU will win. MSU doesn't have the horses to win in Columbus.

October 22 at Indiana: Almost a sure win (97%). Basically a home game, and IU is just terrible. I don't think I'll ever understand why they fired Cam Cameron (who was starting to turn things around), then fired Gerry DiNardo so quickly. It's not like anyone's going to walk in there and have that team in the Rose Bowl in two seasons. It'll take 4-5 years, but if Terry Hoeppner can get them back to a consistent 7 or 8-win team (like they were under Mallory) they ought to build a statue of him.

October 29 at Minnesota: Probable win (85%). This one should scare me on a similar level to the Penn State game, but somehow it just doesn't. Until Glen Mason gets this team over the hump-- I'm talking a New Year's Day Bowl game and a 10-11 win season, they're just another Michigan State. Incidentally, for all the love Mason gets for rebuilding crappy programs, he has exactly as many conference championships in his career as Mack Brown: Zero.

November 5 vs. Illinois: Almost a sure win (98%). This will not be a good week to be a frat boy in Champaign.

November 12 vs. Northwestern: Almost a sure win (98%). Revenge + Team imploding this summer + Horseshoe = Blowout.

November 19 at Michigan: Tossup (49%). I have a theory on this series. Unless there's a substantial talent gap that forms between these programs in the near future (not likely) it's going to be back-and-forth for quite a while. In 2003, you could tell that Michigan spent all spring and all summer thinking about how close they came in the Horseshoe. They came out absolutely ready to kill and were the first team to beat OSU soundly in more than two years. That really stuck in the Buckeyes' craw, and they kicked the shit out of Michigan last year. I'm betting that the Wolverines are none too pleased with sharing the Big Ten title and backing into the Rose Bowl, and will come out pissed off this fall.

That being said... Michigan got absolutely sodomized along the lines on both sides of the ball last fall. I know some people have made a big point of how Troy Smith is overrated because his reputation is based on that one game against Michigan. Fair enough.

But I'm not sure there's a Big Ten unit less deserving of its reputation than Michigan's offensive line. Somehow, they're considered a dominating series of blocks of granite. In reality, they're decent on screens and traps, but when they needed to line up and ram it right at people last year, they couldn't do it. And they got absolutely buried in Columbus.

If... if... if the Buckeyes can control the line like that again, Michigan won't win. Will it happen? I don't know. But it could.

If Carr falls to 1-4 against Tressel, heading into Columbus in 2006, there are going to be a whole lot of surly folks in the "shitty pavement state."

Realistically, I think this year's crop of Buckeyes is probably a 9-2 team. If they get a bounce here or there, it could easily end up 10-1 or 11-0. It could also end up 8-3 or 7-4 if there are injuries, bad bounces, etc.

I'd like to see one of the running backs step up, I'd like to see the special teams be consistent, and I'd like to see how Ted Ginn holds up now that everyone in the world is keying on him.

The Rose Bowl is not unrealistic, but in this conference this year, it's faaaaar from a given.